Each year natural hazards put millions of people in distress, creating enormous social and economical impacts. Recently, 2017 Atlantic hurricane season drew a lot of attention due to high frequency of hurricanes developing over the region and devastating Caribbean islands. In 2013, typhoon Haiyan, strongest system ever recorded to hit the land, devastated central Philippines causing over 6000 casualties and many more leaving roof-less. Last years have seen tremendous progress in observations, understanding and forecasting of tropical cyclones world wide, and particularly in Atlantic sector after Katrina disaster. However, better tools in forecasting and information dissemination are required to better address modern societal needs.
During the seminar, I will talk about physics of tropical cyclone development and evolution, overview progress in our understanding of the key processes responsible for both local and regional variability, and show examples of advances in observations techniques and forecasting. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be analyzed in context of large scale (ENSO, MJO) and regional (SST anomaly, Azores high) features. Finally, I will talk about extended (subseasonal-to-seasonal) forecasting and present a seasonal forecast based outlook into 2018 hurricane season.